Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Case-Shiller: Broad Decline in February as Double Dip Continues

Following a five-month span of house price increases in the summer of 2009, Case-Shiller has since reported five consecutive declines in both the ten-city and twenty-city indices. Existing home prices fell in February by 0.6% from January on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. It is normal that home price appreciation is weaker in the winter months.

From a year prior, the ten-city index was up 1.4% and the twenty-city index was up 0.6%. This was the first time the indices were positive year-over-year since 2006, as year-ago comparisons now reference the lows of the market in early 2009. From the peak in 2006, home prices have fallen 30.3%, according to the broader index. This is modestly off the low of a 32.6% decline seen in April of last year.

Broad decline was reported across all cities of the 20-city index, with the exception of San Diego, which was the only city to post a month-over-month increase. Many cities reported the steepest declines since the beginning of the second dip in prices, and four cities - Chicago, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and Portland - reported declines of 2.0% or greater in February, rates of decline not seen since early 2009.

February 2010 Non-Seasonally Adjusted Month-Over-Month Percent Changes

Atlanta five straight declines; -1.3% in February.
Boston February was the steepest decline in its second dip, which started in September
Charlotte February was the steepest decline since second dip started in August.
Chicago posted 2.0% decline in February, the steepest since March 2009.
Cleveland February was steepest of last seven consecutive declines.
Dallas increasing declines over last quarter; -1.8% in February.
Denver posted six straight declines; -0.8% in February.
Detroit decline almost doubled from January to February (-1.1% to -1.8%).
Las Vegas following 38 monthly declines, posted one increase in December, but has returned to declines in January and February.
Los Angeles after eight months of increases, posted its first decline of 0.7%.
Miami posted three increasingly steeper declines; -0.5% in February.
Minneapolis decline more than doubled from January to February (-0.9% to -2.2%).
New York six consecutive declines; -0.4% in February.
Phoenix posted two straight months of decline, following seven months of increases.
Portland increasing declines over last quarter; -2.4% in February.
San Diego so far, avoided a second decline in prices with ten consecutive monthly increases.
San Francisco rate of decline has increased for the third straight month.
Seattle fourth straight decline; -1.1% in February.
Tampa declined since September 2009; February was steepest decline since October 2009.
Washington after six monthly increases, posted five consecutive declines.

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